The battle for control of the House is set to kick into high gear with the 2025 elections in the rearview mirror, and both sides are optimistic about their chances after Tuesday night.
Democrats are flying high after their victories in key elections in Virginia, California and New Jersey, celebrating those wins as a decisive rejection of President Donald Trump’s administration. But Republicans are still confident in their chances of keeping the House next year and are poised to use the far-left’s success in New York City as a nationwide political cudgel.
‘Yesterday was a big night for America and a big night for the Democratic Party, as candidates across the country, up and down the ballot, decisively defeated MAGA Republicans in an extraordinary rejection of the extremism that the American people have been experiencing since Day 1 of Donald Trump’s presidency,’ House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said at a press conference Wednesday.
A memo circulated by the Jeffries-aligned House Majority PAC and obtained by Fox News Digital exuded confidence: ‘With less than one year until Election Day, Democrats remain poised to take back the House in 2026 and elect Leader Hakeem Jeffries as the next Speaker.’
But Jeffries’ counterpart, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., had a very different interpretation.
‘There’s no surprises. What happened last night was blue states and blue cities voted blue. We all saw that coming, and no one should read too much into last night’s election results. Off-year elections are not indicative of what’s to come,’ Johnson said at his own news conference. ‘I think that when we go into next year in the midterms, we’re very bullish about the outcome. We have an extraordinary record to run on.’
A House GOP campaign operative who spoke with Fox News Digital was also confident about Republicans’ ability to keep the majority next November, arguing the key lies in voter turnout.
‘I think we actually had a good turnout night. They just had a monster one,’ the GOP operative said of New Jersey, where Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill defeated Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
‘They had midterm turnout in an off-year [governor] race. And so I think it comes down to us continuing to do the work to show that we need people to show up when the president is not on the ballot.’
They also dismissed Democrats’ inroads with Hispanic and Latino voters in New Jersey as recoverable for the GOP.
‘I think it goes back to, across-the-board, getting our voters to show up,’ the GOP operative said. ‘With Hispanic voters specifically, keep putting in the work, and we can’t take them for granted… it’s felt like, in some of those races, that they were not making the attempt to talk to them on our side.’
On the other side, an operative familiar with House Democrat campaigns said they’re taking lessons from a renewed surge of enthusiasm by two groups — Hispanic voters and women.
And while acknowledging the groups were not monolithic, the Democratic operative said most Americans were all focused on the same issue: cost of living.
‘I think it’s just like a very helpful reminder to double down on the issues that people care about most. Poll after poll, public and private, is telling you that Americans in any district care most about the cost of living and rising costs and being able to afford things,’ they said. ‘I think those are the solutions that people want to hear, and we should be proactive in speaking to them.’
The Democratic operative argued that issue drove the successes of Sherrill and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who defeated GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia and became a main facet of House Democrats’ most contentious campaigns.
Another issue being viewed in opposing lights by both sides is the victory of socialist Zohran Mamdani in the New York City mayoral race.
‘The biggest takeaway I have is that not a day should go by when a Republican candidate, a member on the trail, a member of leadership, whoever, whatever branch they’re in, whether state, local, federal, House, Senate, governors, whatever, should talk about Zohran Mamdani,’ the GOP operative said. ‘I think he is the party now, frankly.’
The Democratic source said, ‘We just kind of saw a proof point that it’s not effective, because they were trying this in races across the country here, and it didn’t work.’
They pointed to Republicans’ attempts to tie Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., to vulnerable Democrats nationally after her upset victory in 2018.
‘It just doesn’t work,’ they said. ‘Somebody in the Virginia Beach area of the country does not give a s— about who the mayor of New York City is. They care about the cost of living.’
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